Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

重庆地面最高气温与最大风速年极值的渐近分布

利用重庆1951-1990年间地面最高气温和1956-1990年间地面最大风速年极值的记录,采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布分别对其渐近分布进行拟合.通过统计推断,找出重庆地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值遵循的最佳渐近分布--韦伯分布.     

王文升同志在全省国土资源工作座谈会暨全省土地调查工作会议上的讲话

同志们:这次全省国土资源工作座谈会,是经省政府同意召开的。主要任务是传达学习中央人口资源环境工作座谈会和全国国土资源厅长座谈会精神,围绕树立和落实科学发展观,研究部署当前国土资源重点工作。赵克志副省长对这次会议十分重视,亲自到会并将作重要讲话。我们一定要认真抓好贯彻落实。下面,根据省厅党组研究的意见,我讲三个方面的问题。一、深刻领会中央精神,把握大局,坚持以科学发展观指导国土资源工作全国“两会”期间,中央召开人口资源环境工作座谈会,胡锦涛总书记、温家宝总理在会上发表了重要讲话,全面阐述了科学发展观的深刻内涵…     

DISTRIBUTION OF 2-D MAGNETIC SADDLE POINTS AND MORPHOLOGY OF FLARE KERNELS IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

We extrapolated the 3-D fields above the photosphere, taking the observed photospheric magnetic fields in the active regions NOAA 6659 and 7321 as the boundary conditions of a linear force-free field model, and detected the singular points of the 2-D fields in a plane at the chromospheric level. These singular points can be described with the Poincaré index. Singular points with the index of +1 correspond to concentrations of magnetic flux, and those with the index of -1 to the saddle points in the plane. All of these singular points are connected by the lanes demarcating the 2-D magnetic cells in the plane. It has been confirmed that these saddle points are the intersections between separators and planes intersecting the 3-D fields. From comparisons between kernels of flares occurring in both regions and the saddle points, we found that there is a close morphological relationship between distributions of the saddle points and flare kernels. The main results are as follows: (a) The flare kernels tend to appear in areas with concentrating 2-D saddle points. (b) The morphology of the kernels is exactly confined by the lanes in the plane at chromospheric level. These facts seem favourable for the viewpoint that solar flares are closely related to magnetic separatrices and separators.     

小行星(360)Carlova自转参数的测定

小行星自转参数的资料不仅可以为小行星碰撞演化提供数据,还可以为太阳系的演化研究提供依据．利用云南天文台1米望远镜对主带碳类小行星(360)Carlova进行了新的CCD测光观测,结合前人的测光资料,利用Epoch-方法对(360)的自转参数进行了反演计算,得到该小行星自转的恒星周期为0．25780417±0．00000003天,自转轴的黄道坐标为(95°±3,°40°±1°)．新的结果与前人的结果相比较为一致,其精度稍高于以前的估算结果．     

胶东“玲珑-焦家式”金矿资源潜力与找矿

“玲珑焦家式”金矿的成岩成矿,从新太古代至中生代存在着继承性的成因关系,成矿具有长期性、多源性特点,但中生代燕山早期岩浆活动是主导成矿因素。区域化探成果显示胶东金矿直接矿源岩———郭家岭花岗岩金的丰度比原始矿源岩———早前寒武纪变质沉积岩系及侵入岩系金的丰度低1/2。郭家岭花岗岩面积在2 km2以上岩体定量估计金亏损总量与胶东金矿总量预测的资源量相当,从一个侧面展现了胶东金矿资源的潜力。望儿山金矿的找矿实践展示,焦家式金矿在1 000 m以下尚有巨大潜力,整个胶东金矿产区在3 000 m以上的资源潜力应在5000 t以上。     

上扬子地台震旦系铅锌矿床类型及找矿方向

上扬子地台含铅锌矿地层主要为震旦系。震旦系在上扬子地台主要发育上统灯影组,次有下统陡山沱组。将上扬子地台震旦系铅锌矿床成因划分为一级为叠生矿床,二级为层控矿床,三级为热水沉积改造矿床和热水沉积再造矿床四级类型,该类型按铅锌比例进一步划分为富铅型、富锌型、铅锌共生型。研究区内最重要的铅锌矿床成因类型为南郑马元、会东大梁子铅锌矿为代表的富锌型。陕西南郑、紫阳—镇坪地区,湖北武当、神农架、黄陵地区,以及地台西缘的安宁河、甘洛—小江、峨边—寻甸等地区的震旦系是寻找铅锌矿的最有利地段。     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …     

CCD联合平差方法及其初步实例检验

在常规照相天体测量工作中 ,对暗天体的定位是采用逐级定标星过渡的方法实现的。由于星表系统差和局部差的存在 ,最终定位结果可能包含难以把握的误差积累。在CCD小视场观测情况下时常难以找到足够数量的定标星。鉴于此 ,推导了CCD观测联合平差方法的严格矢量表达式 ,以期通过共同星的过渡 ,实现大天区统一平差。原理上此方法可实现相对于河外天体的定位 ,以削弱星表系统差和局部差对定位结果的影响。讨论了CCD联合平差方法实现中的问题 ,包括底片常数模型选择、切点位置改正、共同星的较差改正和法方程解算方法等 ,并分析了具体的处理措施。用实例初步检验了CCD联合平差方法的效果 ,表明通过对多张CCD观测的联合平差 ,可以削弱单张CCD观测参考星数目过少、单张CCD观测参考星分布不均、个别参考星存在位置偏差和局部区域参考星存在系统性位置偏差等不利因素对归算结果的影响 ,进而达到扩大视场和提高归算精度的目的     

分组密码的安全性与强化设计

分组密码是数据通讯中最常用的数据加密方式，以DES为例分析现有分组加密算法的安全隐患，并提出了可变密钥加密和变长密文输出两个新思路，可应用于所有现有分组加密算法以提高安全性，并就该方法的安全性、效率、具体应用做出了分析。